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Share Selections

The table below shows the results, for the last 6 years, of buying ShareMaestro's ten best value shares at the start of each year and selling them at the end of the year. A modification of this strategy is to put a 20% trailing stop-loss on each share purchased so that the share is sold when it falls 20% below the highest price achieved after purchase. The basic ShareMaestro strategy achieved a compound annual return of 12.6% over the 6 years, compared with an annual return of just 3.5% achieved by the FTSE All-Share index. The stop-loss strategy did even better, achieving a compound annual return of 17.2%, outperforming the FTSE All-Share index in each year. You may be able to achieve even better returns by fine-tuning share selections, as covered in the ShareMaestro User Manual. These returns exclude reinvested dividends (around 3% annually) and transaction costs. Details for each year are shown below the table.

% change over year FTSE All-Share index ShareMaestro 10 best value shares
without stop-loss with 20% trailing stop-loss
2010 12.9 14.0 19.3
2011 -9.0 -11.3 4.1
2012 10.0 35.3 29.8
2013 13.6 46.8 34.7
2014 -2,2 -6.3 3.1
2015 -2.3 8.6 15.8
End-2015 value of £100 invested at start 2010 122.7 204.4 259.2
Compound annual return % 3.5 12.6 17.2


ShareMaestro's record for 2015 was very strong, beating the market by 10.9%.

Company                             %  price change over 2015 % price change with 20% stop-loss
Hogg Robinson
68.4
68.4
Redrow
60.8
60.8
Hansard Global
27.0
27.0
John Menzies
16.9
23.9
Petrofac
12.0
19.3
Anglo-Eastern Plantations
-3.5
-1.1
Cape
-5.8
-19.8
BGEO Group
-9.6
-14.3
Communisis
-19.6
-1.2
Ferrexpo
-60.9
-5.2
Average % change in price
+8.6
15.8
FTSE All-share index
-2.3
 
Average outperformance
+10.9
+18.1

2014 performance

Company                         % price change over 2014 % price change with 20% stop-loss
City of London Investment Group 37.8 37.8
F & C Asset Management 30.0 * 30.0*
RSA Insurance 7.0 7.0
Amlin 5.9 5.9
St. Mowdem Properties 5.2 -10.2
Debenhams -3.3 -12.3
Hansard Global -7.3 -7.3
BP -15.9 -14.1
Management Consulting Group -34.8 -15.2
Petropavlovsk -84.0 -1.2
Average % change in price -6.3 3.1
FTSE All-Share index -2.2  
Average outperformance -4.1 +5.3
* to takeover price in May 2014

 

2013 performance

Company                       % price change over 2013 % price change with 20% stop-loss
Bank of Georgia Holdings
130.6
130.6
Greencore
115.4
115.4
St Ives
65.2
65.2
Huntsworth
51.9
18.0
Hogg Robinson 44.4 44.4
Volex Group 32.2 2.2
Centaur Media 27.7 4.3
NCC Group 23.2 -19.4
Mecom Group 6.4 0
First Group -29.3 -14.1
Average % change in price 46.8 34.7
FTSE All-Share index 13.6  
Average outperformance 33.2 21.1

2012 performance

Company % price change over 2012 % price change with 20% stop-loss
Pace 161.7 3.9
Cable & Wireless Worldwide* 144.6 144.6
Topps Tiles 100.0 29.8
Connect Group 96.9 96.9
Arena Leisure* 17.2 17.2
Wincanton 12.3 17.3
Huntsworth 8.8 15.3
RSM Tenon -43.3 -20.0
Goldenport Holdings -45.6 7.6
Game Group -100 -14.7
Average % change in price 35.3 29.8
FTSE All-Share index 10.0  
Average outperformance 25.3 19.8

* to takeover price

2011 performance

Company % price change over 2011 % price change with 20% stop-loss
Galliford Try 61.6 47.7
Interserve 45.7 26.4
British Polythene Industries 37.1 37.1
Sepura 17.2 15.7
Tribal -15.4 -19.5
Aviva -24.8 -4.0
Charles Taylor Consulting -25.2 -19.3
Hardy Underwriting Bermuda -30.3 -14.5
Game Group -89.0 -13.8
HMV -89.4 -14.8
Average % change in price -11.3 4.1
FTSE All-Share index -9.0  
Average outperformance -2.3 6.4

2010 performance

Company % price change over 2010 % price change with 20% stop-loss
Communisis 156.4 74.5
Management Consulting Group 75.7 75.7
BRIT Insurance Holdings 35.7 35.7
Beazley 19.4 19.4
Chaucer Holdings 14.4 -5.8
Interserve 12.5 1.0
Catlin 10.8 10.8
Tribal Group -30.7 4.7
Hampson Industries -54.3 -8.1
ROK -100.0 -15.0
Average % change in price 14.0 19.3
FTSE All-Share index 12.9  
Average outperformance 1.1 6.4

ShareMaestro valuations do not constitute investment advice from ShareMaestro Limited. You should take appropriate investment advice before making investment decisions. Quoted yearly price changes are based on the dates of the closest available ShareMaestro valuation spreadsheets for each year and the corresponding FTSE All-Share index price change for the same period,

"This FTSE Valuation System Really Works - And Now It's Even Better"

What Really Profits Magazine   November 2009
November 2009. Click on logo to read the whole article.

"I have to say that ShareMaestro is in the elite group of products that actually does what it says on the tin. Its valuations for the FTSE 100 are consistent and the share valuations are incredibly useful.

In April of this year, the FTSE was trading at 4,096, but the engine valued the market at 5,104, a 25% difference. After six months, the market has recovered well and the ShareMaestro engine got it right again.

I also asked ShareMaestro to provide a top 10 and bottom 10 value selection in January of 2009. As of November, the top 10 value have returned an average of 58% and the bottom 10 value have returned 10.6%. The FTSE has returned 14% over the period."


David Evans. Editor, What Really Profits Magazine